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Polymarket Statistics 2026: Billions Traded, Profits Concentrated

Trading volume, trader profits, wallet counts, and forecasting accuracy, measured separately.

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Published November 3, 2026 · 10 sources

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Polymarket recorded $12.9 billion in trading volume in July 2026. But that is not $12.9 billion spent, nearly a million active wallets are not necessarily a million traders, and winning more predictions does not mean making money. Behind the headline numbers, a study of 588 million trades found that the top 1% of profitable users captured 76.5% of positive trading gains.

At a glance

$12.89 billion in combined notional trading volume across Polymarket US and International in July 2026.
$8.16 billion in August volume, down 36.7% from July.
76.5% of positive trading profits went to the top 1% of profitable users in an academic study.
−14.5% return on held-to-resolution positions for Dune's active-retail cohort.
21.7% of resting liquidity came from just 30 international wallet addresses.
966,750 active wallets were recorded on Polymarket International during June–August 2026.

$12.9 Billion Traded. Not $12.9 Billion Spent.

Polymarket recorded $12.89 billion in combined notional trading volume in July 2026, according to Pew Research Center, using The Block's data. Notional volume reflects contract value rather than necessarily the cash traders paid. For example, 100 contracts bought at 40 cents cost $40, excluding fees, but represent $100 in potential payouts. Because contracts can trade repeatedly, volume is not equivalent to deposits, trader losses, or platform revenue.

Trading Volume Fell 44.7% Between June and August

We summed Polymarket's four categories in Pew's data for June and July, then compared them with The Block's August total. Pew uses The Block's underlying data, so these figures come from the same provider rather than independent measurements.

Month	Polymarket notional volume	Monthly change
June 2026	$14.74 billion	,
July 2026	$12.89 billion	−12.6%
August 2026	$8.16 billion	−36.7%

From June to August, Polymarket's monthly volume fell $6.58 billion, or 44.7%. Kalshi's August decline was smaller, at 7.3%, according to The Block. The World Cup contributed heavily to summer trading, so three monthly figures don't establish a lasting decline.

Polymarket US Grew From 4% to 39% of Volume

Polymarket US accounted for 4% of combined trading volume in January 2026 and 39% in July, according to Pew, a 35-percentage-point increase. That matters when comparing studies: Pew's later volume data includes both exchanges, while its wallet study and Dune's research cover only Polymarket International.

The Top 1% of Winners Captured 76.5% of Profits

A 2026 study by Pat Akey, Vincent Grégoire, Nicolas Harvie and Charles Martineau examined 588 million Polymarket trades representing $67 billion in volume. Among profitable users, the top 1% captured 76.5% of positive trading profits. Among loss-making users, the top 1% accounted for 68.1% of losses.

Profits were more concentrated within the winning group than losses were within the losing group, by 8.4 percentage points. This is the top 1% of profitable accounts, not the top 1% of everyone trading on Polymarket.

Successful Accounts Supplied Liquidity. Unsuccessful Ones Tended to Take It.

The researchers found that profitable accounts tended to provide liquidity through limit orders, which specify a trading price, while unsuccessful accounts more often used market orders that execute against available prices. That doesn't mean placing limit orders automatically makes a trader profitable. The study also found modest persistence in monthly performance, although that may reflect which traders stayed active rather than lasting skill.

Retail Won More Often and Still Lost Money

Dune found that active-retail wallets won 53.8% of positions held to resolution but returned −14.5%. Professional directional wallets won just 44.7% and returned +1.8%.

Trader cohort	Winning positions	Held-to-resolution return
Active retail	53.8%	−14.5%
Professional directional	44.7%	+1.8%

Retail wallets won more positions, but only 34.2% of their shares resolved in the money, compared with 54.7% for professional directional wallets. A higher win rate concealed worse returns. Counting winning predictions alone gives a misleading picture of trading success.

These results exclude positions sold before resolution. Early exits accounted for 46.2% of active-retail taker notional, compared with 8% for professional directional wallets. Dune classified the cohorts by trading behavior, so the figures don't describe every retail trader's overall performance.

Thirty Addresses Supplied a Fifth of Resting Liquidity

Thirty addresses supplied 21.7% of resting liquidity on Polymarket International in June–August 2026, up from 14.9% in March–May. That's a 6.8-percentage-point increase in concentration.

Ten pair-arbitrage addresses also accounted for 8.4% of aggressive trading flow, up from 3.4%, nearly 2.5 times their earlier share.

Activity	March–May 2026	June–August 2026
Resting liquidity supplied by 30 addresses	14.9%	21.7%
Aggressive flow from ten pair-arbitrage addresses	3.4%	8.4%

Resting liquidity measures orders waiting to be filled, while aggressive flow measures orders executing against available liquidity. The percentages describe different sides of trading and cannot be added together.

Nearly a Million Wallets, Not Users

Dune counted 966,750 active wallets on Polymarket International between June and August 2026. That's not a verified count of people. One trader can control several addresses, and automated operations can use multiple wallets.

In Pew Research Center's separate six-week study of 11,989 selected wallets, 63% placed fewer than 100 trades, while 11% placed at least 1,000. The median was 46 trades, but the most active group traded on an average of 39 of the study's 42 days. Pew sampled participants in ten high-volume events, so its findings don't represent every Polymarket user.

Sports Took 82.4% of July Volume

Sports accounted for $10.62 billion, or 82.4% of Polymarket's combined notional trading volume in July 2026. Politics accounted for $726.8 million, or 5.6%. Sports attracted approximately 14.6 times as much volume.

Category	July 2026 volume	Share
Sports	$10.62B	82.4%
Cryptocurrency	$1.15B	9.0%
Politics	$726.8M	5.6%
Other	$391M	3.0%
Total	$12.89B	100%

Shares calculated from Pew Research Center's published category figures.

The FIFA World Cup accounted for approximately $7.4 billion in international Polymarket activity, according to Dune. Sports trading rose 34% between March–May and June–August, but Dune estimated it would have declined 34% without the tournament. Under the same adjustment, overall international activity would have fallen approximately 41%.

Polymarket's 90.3% Accuracy Depends on When You Check

Polymarket reports 90.3% directional accuracy one month before market resolution, rising to 98.7% four hours before. That's an 8.4-percentage-point difference, with the higher figure measured much closer to the outcome.

Directional accuracy measures how often the favored outcome won. A prediction priced at 51% and one priced at 99% can both count as correct, despite expressing different confidence levels. Polymarket also reports a Brier score of 0.0595, which assesses probability estimates rather than simply which outcome was favored.

These are figures from Polymarket's own dashboard, not an independent audit. The 98.7% result doesn't establish that the platform predicts events months in advance with that accuracy.

Statistics to Stop Repeating

Some Polymarket figures change meaning when later summaries omit the population, reporting period, or measurement method. Three comparisons show why the original source matters.

Claim or comparison	What the evidence actually shows
“The top 1% of Polymarket users capture 76.5% of profits.”	An HEC Paris event summary uses this shortened description. Akey and colleagues' study specifies the top 1% among users with positive P&L, not all accounts.
Polymarket figures from different Pew reports are directly comparable.	Pew's May 2026 analysis excludes Polymarket US, while its September update includes it. Venue coverage changed.
“Polymarket predictions are 98.7% accurate.”	Polymarket reports 98.7% directional accuracy four hours before resolution. Polyrama separately reports a 98.7% hit rate across 455 observations involving markets priced at 95% probability or higher. These are different measurements.

The profit statistic is particularly sensitive to wording. Remove “among profitable users,” and a finding about the distribution of positive gains appears to describe all accounts. Likewise, matching accuracy percentages don't mean two reports measured the same forecasting performance.

How to Check These Numbers Yourself

Some figures can be reproduced with published data. Others depend on transaction-level research that isn't reproduced here.

Claim	How to check
$12.89B July volume	Add Polymarket's July sports, cryptocurrency, politics and other categories in Pew's volume chart.
44.7% June–August decline	Compare Pew's approximately $14.74B June total with The Block's $8.16B August figure, then divide the difference by June's total.
82.4% sports share	Divide Pew's approximately $10.62B July sports volume by the $12.89B combined Polymarket total.
76.5% profit concentration	Read Akey and colleagues' definition of positive-P&L users. This result requires their underlying trading analysis rather than simple arithmetic from a published table.

Three Traps When You Check

Notional volume is not spending. A contract bought for 40 cents can contribute $1 in notional volume. Don't treat trading volume as deposits, trader losses, or company revenue.

Wallets are not people. One trader can control multiple addresses, and automated operations can generate thousands of transactions. Wallet counts don't establish the number of individual users.

The studies don't cover the same market. Pew's later volume data includes Polymarket US and International, while Dune's wallet research covers only the international exchange. Check the dates and platform coverage before comparing figures.

What Sits Behind This

The volume and category figures come from Pew Research Center, using The Block's data. Trader activity and liquidity findings come from Dune, profit concentration from Akey and colleagues' academic study, and forecasting accuracy from Polymarket's own dashboard. These sources cover different periods and exchanges. We recalculated published percentages and comparisons but haven't independently rebuilt the underlying trading data.

Polymarket adds another side to the crypto betting landscape we cover. Unlike crypto casinos, where customers wager on games, Polymarket lets traders buy and sell contracts tied to event outcomes. Our prediction market statistics cover the wider industry, our analysis of the rise in prediction market trading volumes looks at what drives the record months, while our crypto gambling statistics examine the casino side. If you spot an error, let us know so we can review it and date any correction.

Polymarket Statistics: Quick Answers

How much trading volume does Polymarket have?

Polymarket recorded $12.89 billion in combined notional trading volume in July 2026, falling to $8.16 billion in August. These figures measure the potential payout value of contracts traded, not the amount traders spent or deposited.

How many people use Polymarket?

Dune recorded 966,750 active wallet addresses on Polymarket International between June and August 2026. That isn't a count of individual users because one person or automated operation can control multiple wallets.

What percentage of Polymarket traders make money?

No reliable platform-wide profitability percentage is established by the studies reviewed. An academic study found that the top 1% of profitable users captured 76.5% of positive trading profits, but that doesn't reveal what share of all users was profitable.

Do retail traders make money on Polymarket?

Dune's active-retail cohort recorded a −14.5% return on positions held to resolution despite winning 53.8% of those positions. The calculation excludes positions sold earlier, so it doesn't represent the complete performance of every retail trader.

How accurate are Polymarket predictions?

Polymarket reports 90.3% directional accuracy one month before resolution and 98.7% four hours before. These platform-reported figures depend on when predictions are measured and shouldn't be treated as universal accuracy rates.

Sources

Every figure above traces to one of these.